GEN. RUPERT SMITH: UNPROFOR'S ASSESSMENT ARISING FROM THE FALL OF SREBRENICA (13 JULY 1995)

FROM: HQ UNPROFOR SARAJEVO

OFFICE OF LIEUTENANT GENERAL RUPERT SMITH

CONFIDENTIAL / IMMEDIATE

DTG 13 2316B JUL95

Fm: THE OFFICE OF THE COMMANDER HQ UNPROFOR

To: HQ UNPF ZAGREB, ATT: SRSG, FC, DFC, COS

Subject: AFTERMATH FALL OF SREBRENICA

Drafter: LT COL JRJ BAXTER MA TO COMD

Releasing Officer: LT COL JRJ BAXTER MA TO COMD

MESSAGE:

Attached is the comd UNPROFOR's assessment and recommendations arising from the fall of Srebrenica.

13 July 1995

AFTERMATH OF FALL OF SREBRENICA

1. In the aftermath of the fall of Srebrenica we face amongst other issues two immediate matters: the reception and care of the refugees, and the recovery of DUTCHBAT complete with all its weapons and equipment. The solutions that we find to these problems will likely become the policy for handling the anticipated fall of other enclaves and should colour the advise we give to the policy for the remaining enclaves.

2. What follows is based on the perception that:

a. The Bosnian Serbs are intent on moving fast to present a 'fait accompli.' They wish to remove the Enclaves, inter alia, to free their rear area to provide troops for a decisive blow and possibly to counter the RRF. We must expect Zepa and possibly Gorazde and Bihac to be attacked (See attached for the latest report on Zepa and our relations with the BSA).

b. The Bosnians want to involve the UN, so as to make it responsible for solving the refugee problem in all respects and for the defence of the enclaves. They want the UN to say if it cannot or will not discharge there responsibilities, so as to reinforce their efforts to have the Arms Embargo lifted and the impediment of the UN removed.

3. The Bosnian Serbs are "cleansing" Srebrenica. DUTCHBAT are doing what they can to monitor the situation but reports of abductions and murder, unconfirmed as yet, are beginning to be heard. Men of military age are being separated from the refugees. The Serbs are moving the problem rapidly from Srebrenica to Central Bosnia. The Bosnians want all refugees to go to the Tuzla Air Base and the airfield to be opened in order to supply them. (See the Government statement faxed to you this afternoon.) I have said that the Government and UNHCR must cooperate and I was sure that a large number of refugees on an open site such as the Air Base would be a mistake. HQ Sector NE is the lead HQ, but there is an urgent need for UNHCR and CA people of appropriate stature and capabilities to grip this matter and deal with the Bosnian Government both in Sarajevo and Central Bosnia. In addition UNHCR and CA need reinforcing at Sector level.

4. The recovery of DUTCHBAT with their weapons and equipment is an important objective. If we fail to achieve it we will set the base line for subsequent similar events at a unfortunately low level. CO DUTCHBAT must not be left to deal on his own account: he is talking from the jail. The Serbs are refusing to deal with HQ UNPROFOR and it seems HQ UNPF Pressure must be bought to b are to support the CO by higher authorities, perhaps Mr Bildt and his team or Governments. Meanwhile CO DUTCHBAT has been given instructions to sit out demands to do anything but depart with his people, weapons and equipment. THE BSA may well seek to hold DUTCHBAT as hostage to cover subsequent attacks into other enclaves.

5. These two matters are of immediate concern but effect a slightly longer term objective: the security of UNPROFOR and the refugees in other enclaves. I think we have the following broad options open to us:

a. To lie back. In this event our solutions to the foregoing issues are critical.

b. To leave the vicinity: either

- (1) Leaving a small UNPROFOR presence. >This would involve negotiations, time, and the recognition that we were to a degree abandoning a Safe Area. In place we would probably have to promise Air Strikes which would complicate the negotiations and on the evidence to date be ineffective, particularly if UNPROFOR remains in range of BSA Artillery.

or

-- (2) Withdraw both UN and refugees. We would be playing into the Serbs hands.

c. Resist. On the grounds that we do not want to repeat the failed approach in Srebrenica, we can either:

-- (1) Bomb - This has not worked because we have not been prepared to escalate and the bombing does not stop the attacks on this terrain. Proposals to use armed helicopters and or raid with the RRF fall into the same category as the air raids. Ground cannot be held; there is difficulty in finding suitable targets; air supremacy has to be achieved; the raid is not part of a coherent All Arms battle; elements of UNPROFOR remain potential hostages to capture and attack; casualties must be expected.

-- (2) Reinforce to defend. This would involve the air insertion of a sizable force of All Arms which would have to be maintained by air and supported by air. An even larger force could fight its way into the enclave but it too would need air support and probably maintenance.

6. As to which to choose: I suggest if the BSA continues to move at their current speed and particularly if they hold DUTCHBAT as hostages para 5a will be chosen for us. If we have more time we must decide whether or not we wish to fight a war. If we do it should be for a greater aim than the defence of an enclave. Furthermore, appropriate forces must be deployed and we must remove the white and vulnerable elements of UNPROFOR or we will continue to have hostages to fortune. If we are not prepared to fight and escalate to achieve the desired end then we must face the harsh and unforgiving truth short of a peace settlement we must settle for either options 5a or b.

7. In the immediate future the need for UNHCR/CA reinforcement to grip the refugee crisis and an high level advocate for DUTCHBAT are critical.

RUPERT SMITH
______________________
SIGNATURE
RA SMITH
Lt Gen

Comd UNPROFOR